Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.25% or lower before 2027?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
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Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$3.9K
$261.37
91.5¢ → 98.4¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Noavg 83¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$235.58 | 53% 3029-2636 (5665) |
 Ahpo | Noavg 96.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$18.33 | 87% 1598-249 (1847) |
 DEGENKHAN | Noavg 97.5¢ | $963.7 | $972.12 | +$6.44 | 66% 1105-562 (1667) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 97.7¢ | $221.66 | $223.14 | +$1.02 | 77% 11023-3363 (14386) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.