Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.5K
$44.89
91.8¢ → 94.3¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ImJustKen | Noavg 92.6¢ | $933.8 | $951.52 | +$17.72 | 53% 3029-2635 (5664) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 89¢ | $271.86 | $288.19 | +$16.32 | 94% 441-28 (469) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $216.86 | $221.7 | +$4.84 | 51% 1622-1583 (3205) |
 FrozenParasiteCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.1¢ | $60.41 | $66.38 | +$5.96 | 55% 426-349 (775) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 90.6¢ | $1.07 | $1.12 | +$0.04 | 53% 4657-4180 (8837) |
ImJustKenInvested
$933.8
Value
$951.52
PnL
+$17.72
Record
53%
3029-2635 (5664)
Invested
$271.86
Value
$288.19
PnL
+$16.32
Record
94%
441-28 (469)
Invested
$216.86
Value
$221.7
PnL
+$4.84
Record
51%
1622-1583 (3205)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100Invested
$60.41
Value
$66.38
PnL
+$5.96
Record
55%
426-349 (775)
Invested
$1.07
Value
$1.12
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
4657-4180 (8837)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.