Will the Democrats win the Nebraska governor race in 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4

Yes17¢No83¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$235.43

Smart Money Entry

90.1¢ → 83¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares4,267

Combined PnL-$304.57

Yes2 traders

Total Value$143.64

Total Shares845

Combined PnL+$69.15

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ImJustKen	Noavg 90.3¢	$4.2K	$3.5K	-$304.35	53% 3029-2635 (5664)
FrozenParasiteCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$40	$85	+$45	55% 421-346 (767)
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$34.49	$58.64	+$24.15	51% 1622-1582 (3204)
probability<$100	Noavg 83.4¢	$58.32	$58.02	-$0.3	42% 1293-1763 (3056)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 82¢	$6.45	$6.53	+$0.08	57% 11904-9099 (21003)

ImJustKen

Invested

$4,189.66

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$304.35

Record

53%

3029-2635 (5664)

FrozenParasiteCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40

Value

$85

PnL

+$45

Record

55%

421-346 (767)

ABC12345654321CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.49

Value

$58.64

PnL

+$24.15

Record

51%

1622-1582 (3204)

probability<$100

Invested

$58.32

Value

$58.02

PnL

-$0.3

Record

42%

1293-1763 (3056)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.53

PnL

+$0.08

Record

57%

11904-9099 (21003)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 83%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.5%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.