Will the Democrats win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.6K
$12.99
91.9¢ → 92¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
1653h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $548.24 | $543.62 | -$4.62 | 51% 1621-1581 (3202) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $410 | $375.15 | -$5.55 | 50% 2450-2468 (4918) |
11 11122 | Noavg 90¢ | $360 | $370 | +$8 | 44% 1379-1757 (3136) |
PI piepedCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $269.37 | $286.21 | +$16.84 | 47% 61-70 (131) |
QM QMG-CORE<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $63.12 | $61.44 | -$1.68 | 77% 1369-405 (1774) |
Invested
$548.24
Value
$543.62
PnL
-$4.62
Record
51%
1621-1581 (3202)
Invested
$410
Value
$375.15
PnL
-$5.55
Record
50%
2450-2468 (4918)
Invested
$360
Value
$370
PnL
+$8
Record
44%
1379-1757 (3136)
Invested
$269.37
Value
$286.21
PnL
+$16.84
Record
47%
61-70 (131)
Invested
$63.12
Value
$61.44
PnL
-$1.68
Record
77%
1369-405 (1774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.