Will the Democrats win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.5K
$6.65
81.5¢ → 82¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
491h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 31¢ | $625.82 | $690.98 | +$96.68 | 36% 13848-24478 (38326) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 31¢ | $318.67 | $410.6 | +$97.91 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 59.6¢ | $278.57 | $280.38 | -$1.22 | |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Yesavg 82.1¢ | $428.8 | $428.2 | -$0.6 | — 0-1 (1) |
 Car | Yesavg 84.8¢ | $339.14 | $330 | -$9.14 | 67% 4110-1988 (6098) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 69.1¢ | $36.24 | $46.13 | +$9.9 | 18% 3455-15751 (19206) |
 KimchiCapital<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $10 | $16.5 | +$6.5 | 73% 413-151 (564) |
Invested
$625.82
Value
$690.98
PnL
+$96.68
Record
36%
13848-24478 (38326)
Both legs:
Invested
$428.8
Value
$428.2
PnL
-$0.6
Record
—
0-1 (1)
CarInvested
$339.14
Value
$330
PnL
-$9.14
Record
67%
4110-1988 (6098)
2B9S<$100Invested
$36.24
Value
$46.13
PnL
+$9.9
Record
18%
3455-15751 (19206)
KimchiCapital<$100Invested
$10
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$6.5
Record
73%
413-151 (564)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.