Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 44¢ · $701 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$701.48
$107.96
37¢ → 44¢
+19% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 44%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
171h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 36¢ | $359.54 | $429.99 | +$90.45 | 40% 690-1015 (1705) |
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $163.33 | $175.58 | +$16.33 | 62% 45-28 (73) |
SB sbimbg<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $40.37 | $38.35 | -$2.69 | 64% 2124-1204 (3328) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3 | $36.06 | -$1.13 | — |
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191CTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $17 | $21.5 | +$5 | 47% 3570-4020 (7590) |
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$359.54
Value
$429.99
PnL
+$90.45
Record
40%
690-1015 (1705)
Invested
$163.33
Value
$175.58
PnL
+$16.33
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
Invested
$40.37
Value
$38.35
PnL
-$2.69
Record
64%
2124-1204 (3328)
Invested
$3
Value
$36.06
PnL
-$1.13
Record
—
Invested
$17
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$5
Record
47%
3570-4020 (7590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.