Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (61%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the SC-01 House seat?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 39¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$6.4K
$901
34.2¢ → 39¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $5.2K | $6.1K | +$875.83 | 60% 181-123 (304) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $167.92 | $201.34 | +$33.42 | 40% 694-1030 (1724) |
 Ahpo<$100 | Noavg 71¢ | $53.25 | $45 | -$8.25 | 86% 1570-249 (1819) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.