Will the Democratic Party win the PA-10 House seat?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
1 arb excluded
$1.2K
-$6.24
79¢ → 80¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 79¢ | $972.25 | $959.94 | -$12.31 | 59% 174-122 (296) |
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 21.2¢ | $288.06 | $168.65 | +$6.43 | 36% 12837-22501 (35338) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 21.2¢ | $107.49 | $101.26 | +$26.97 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 75.1¢ | $63.24 | $67.39 | -$20.54 | |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Yesavg 79¢ | $39.5 | $73.69 | +$6.07 | 57% 81-62 (143) |
Invested
$972.25
Value
$959.94
PnL
-$12.31
Record
59%
174-122 (296)
Invested
$288.06
Value
$168.65
PnL
+$6.43
Record
36%
12837-22501 (35338)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.5
Value
$73.69
PnL
+$6.07
Record
57%
81-62 (143)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.