Will the Democratic Party win the OH-13 House seat?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 93¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 100%
$3.7K
$234.9
89.8¢ → 93¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Yesavg 88.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$208.79 | 61% 201-129 (330) |
 Seutervoinen | Yesavg 93¢ | $641.69 | $641.35 | +$19.67 | 85% 301-55 (356) |
EL Elias.Thornwell | Yesavg 92.6¢ | $178.16 | $178.84 | +$6.45 | 77% 11045-3377 (14422) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.