Will the Democratic Party win the NY-25 House seat?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 97¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$5.3K
$105.77
95¢ → 97¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlyingPlaty | Yesavg 95¢ | $5.2K | $5.3K | +$103.43 | 98% 961-16 (977) |
IM immanuelcan<$100 | Yesavg 93¢ | $55.8 | $58.17 | +$2.34 | 54% 903-783 (1686) |
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.