Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 71¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes71¢No29¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$196.16

Smart Money Entry

56.1¢ → 71¢

+27% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes71%

No29%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,680

Combined PnL+$255.56

No1 trader

Total Value$165.37

Total Shares601

Combined PnL-$59.4

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbit	Yesavg 53¢	$530	$725	+$180	40% 697-1039 (1736)
AB ABC12345654321	Yesavg 64.5¢	$245.21	$269.76	+$24.55	51% 1621-1581 (3202)
PU purplegatto	Yesavg 55.5¢	$158.29	$206.77	+$48.48	49% 5400-5522 (10922)
SB sbimbgCTR	Noavg 38.9¢	$233.79	$165.37	-$59.4	68% 2820-1306 (4126)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 60.1¢	$12.35	$10.85	+$2.53	56% 11220-8690 (19910)

BigRabbit

Yes

Invested

$530

Value

$725

PnL

+$180

Record

40%

697-1039 (1736)

ABC12345654321

Yes

Invested

$245.21

Value

$269.76

PnL

+$24.55

Record

51%

1621-1581 (3202)

purplegatto

Yes

Invested

$158.29

Value

$206.77

PnL

+$48.48

Record

49%

5400-5522 (10922)

sbimbgCTR

Invested

$233.79

Value

$165.37

PnL

-$59.4

Record

68%

2820-1306 (4126)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.35

Value

$10.85

PnL

+$2.53

Record

56%

11220-8690 (19910)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 71%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.8%

71.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.