Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 85¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
$4.3K
$63.54
83.9¢ → 84.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 84.1¢ | $4.0K | $4.1K | +$65.9 | 61% 200-129 (329) |
IM immanuelcan | Noavg 79.5¢ | $87.5 | $255.61 | -$2.36 | 54% 903-783 (1686) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.