Will the Democratic Party win the FL-04 House seat?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 82¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$1.1K
-$20.19
83.5¢ → 81.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HotDogs | Noavg 82.9¢ | $421.15 | $411.3 | -$2.23 | 94% 441-28 (469) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 85.5¢ | $526.58 | $379.87 | -$14.76 | 36% 13446-23443 (36889) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $95.54 | $93.94 | -$1.6 | 34% 269-513 (782) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $95.53 | $93.93 | -$1.6 | 35% 217-411 (628) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $61.54 | $61.54 | +$0 | 34% 239-474 (713) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $51.27 | $51.27 | +$0 | 45% 350-433 (783) |
Invested
$421.15
Value
$411.3
PnL
-$2.23
Record
94%
441-28 (469)
Invested
$526.58
Value
$379.87
PnL
-$14.76
Record
36%
13446-23443 (36889)
Invested
$95.54
Value
$93.94
PnL
-$1.6
Record
34%
269-513 (782)
Invested
$95.53
Value
$93.93
PnL
-$1.6
Record
35%
217-411 (628)
Invested
$61.54
Value
$61.54
PnL
+$0
Record
34%
239-474 (713)
Invested
$51.27
Value
$51.27
PnL
+$0
Record
45%
350-433 (783)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.