Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 67¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
1 arb excluded
$5.0K
-$153.11
70.1¢ → 67¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Noavg 70¢ | $4.4K | $4.3K | -$189.41 | 46% 441-511 (952) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $386.41 | $359.99 | -$26.42 | 51% 1622-1582 (3204) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 27¢ | $200 | $260 | +$60 | 40% 697-1040 (1737) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 65.9¢ | $132.82 | $131.52 | -$0.05 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65.9¢ | $86.68 | $97.32 | +$10.64 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 34.1¢ | $44.83 | $34.2 | -$10.69 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.2¢ | $34.07 | $28.06 | +$2.72 | 57% 12146-9242 (21388) |
Invested
$4,440.82
Value
$4.3K
PnL
-$189.41
Record
46%
441-511 (952)
Invested
$386.41
Value
$359.99
PnL
-$26.42
Record
51%
1622-1582 (3204)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$200
Value
$260
PnL
+$60
Record
40%
697-1040 (1737)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$132.82
Value
$131.52
PnL
-$0.05
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.07
Value
$28.06
PnL
+$2.72
Record
57%
12146-9242 (21388)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.