Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$3.9K
$124.46
95.1¢ → 98.2¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ST StraddleSeller | Yesavg 95¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$124.59 | 60% 171-114 (285) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $39.76 | $39.81 | +$0.05 | 69% 970-442 (1412) |
HO HourglassCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.3¢ | $0.82 | $0.64 | -$0.18 | 77% 8528-2565 (11093) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.