Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 WI-04 House election by 50%-55%?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $607 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$606.77
$53.31
70.7¢ → 69.5¢
-2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 78.7¢ | $632.7 | $397.12 | +$4.94 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 52¢ | $98.8 | $140.6 | +$41.8 | 60% 3036-2035 (5071) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $39.4 | $34.8 | -$0.4 | 18% 3644-16107 (19751) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $34.6 | $20 | -$1.8 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
 AnjunCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $5.48 | $14.25 | +$8.77 | 56% 4803-3772 (8575) |
Invested
$632.7
Value
$397.12
PnL
+$4.94
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
Invested
$98.8
Value
$140.6
PnL
+$41.8
Record
60%
3036-2035 (5071)
2B9S<$100Invested
$39.4
Value
$34.8
PnL
-$0.4
Record
18%
3644-16107 (19751)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$34.6
Value
$20
PnL
-$1.8
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
AnjunCTR<$100Invested
$5.48
Value
$14.25
PnL
+$8.77
Record
56%
4803-3772 (8575)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.