Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-33 House election by 50%-55%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 75¢ · $654 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$654
$30.91
67.8¢ → 74.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 75%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 68¢ | $480.02 | $465.51 | +$10.5 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
 clazzy1 | Noavg 67¢ | $86.62 | $104.72 | +$18.1 | 62% 346-212 (558) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.4¢ | $41.87 | $39.99 | -$1.88 | 18% 3414-15601 (19015) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $32.48 | $36.67 | +$4.19 | — |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $7.14 | $7.1 | -$0 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
Invested
$480.02
Value
$465.51
PnL
+$10.5
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
clazzy1Invested
$86.62
Value
$104.72
PnL
+$18.1
Record
62%
346-212 (558)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$41.87
Value
$39.99
PnL
-$1.88
Record
18%
3414-15601 (19015)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$32.48
Value
$36.67
PnL
+$4.19
Record
—
Istaroth<$100Invested
$7.14
Value
$7.1
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.