Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-20 House election by 40%-45%?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 28¢ · $693 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$692.63
$63.82
20.2¢ → 28¢
+39% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $514.73 | $383.85 | +$40.91 | 36% 14275-25592 (39867) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67.9¢ | $285.27 | $300.2 | -$15.91 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $71.12 | $83.66 | +$56.81 | |
 fkpaCTR | Yesavg 18¢ | $181.65 | $146.07 | +$73.53 | — |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $96.34 | $88.8 | -$7.54 | — 0-1 (1) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 78.4¢ | $74.9 | $66.2 | -$3.08 | 40% 271-412 (683) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.4¢ | $6.8 | $7.7 | +$0.9 | 18% 3722-16525 (20247) |
Invested
$514.73
Value
$383.85
PnL
+$40.91
Record
36%
14275-25592 (39867)
Both legs:
fkpaCTRInvested
$181.65
Value
$146.07
PnL
+$73.53
Record
—
Invested
$96.34
Value
$88.8
PnL
-$7.54
Record
—
0-1 (1)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$74.9
Value
$66.2
PnL
-$3.08
Record
40%
271-412 (683)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$6.8
Value
$7.7
PnL
+$0.9
Record
18%
3722-16525 (20247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.