Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-18 House election by 65%-70%?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 25¢ · $74 held · ends Nov 4

Yes25¢No75¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$73.65

Combined PnL

-$58.53

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes25%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$47.34

Total Shares249

Combined PnL+$5.23

No2 traders

Total Value$26.31

Total Shares29

Combined PnL-$63.77

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fkpaCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.9¢	$32.11	$37.42	+$5.31	—
balthazar<$100	Noavg 87.9¢	$17.52	$17.07	-$0.45	62% 20089-12550 (32639)
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$10	$9.92	-$0.08	— 0-1 (1)
Istaroth	Noavg 65.1¢	$371.95	$9.24	-$63.31	38% 273-442 (715)

fkpaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$32.11

Value

$37.42

PnL

+$5.31

Record

—

balthazar<$100

Invested

$17.52

Value

$17.07

PnL

-$0.45

Record

62%

20089-12550 (32639)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.08

Record

—

0-1 (1)

Istaroth

Invested

$371.95

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$63.31

Record

38%

273-442 (715)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.5%

24.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$277.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

377.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.