Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (71%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 TX-16 House election by 30%-35%?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 29¢ · $266 held · ends Nov 4

Yes29¢No71¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$266.25

Combined PnL

$40.69

Smart Money Entry

22.3¢ → 28.5¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes29%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$247.83

Total Shares909

Combined PnL+$42.29

No1 trader

Total Value$18.42

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$1.6

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
fkpaCTR	Yesavg 20.3¢	$75	$100.45	+$25.45	—
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR	Yesavg 21.2¢	$889.73	$81.35	+$17.48	— 1-1 (2)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 27.1¢	$41.46	$43.68	+$2.22	53% 6132-5384 (11516)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 26¢	$25.22	$22.36	-$2.86	18% 3740-16589 (20329)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 65.1¢	$20.02	$18.42	-$1.6	36% 273-477 (750)

fkpaCTR

Yes

Invested

$75

Value

$100.45

PnL

+$25.45

Record

—

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR

Yes

Invested

$889.73

Value

$81.35

PnL

+$17.48

Record

—

1-1 (2)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$41.46

Value

$43.68

PnL

+$2.22

Record

53%

6132-5384 (11516)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.22

Value

$22.36

PnL

-$2.86

Record

18%

3740-16589 (20329)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$20.02

Value

$18.42

PnL

-$1.6

Record

36%

273-477 (750)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 29%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.4%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$229.13

Max Loss

-$100.00

329.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.