Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (76%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 24¢ · $863 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$863.44
-$17.01
22.8¢ → 24¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 76%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
292h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 77.8¢ | $480.08 | $380.84 | -$20.58 | 36% 12837-22501 (35338) |
 ImbaferCTR | Yesavg 23¢ | $207 | $198 | +$0 | 56% 237-188 (425) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 24.4¢ | $187.56 | $169.18 | -$10.69 | 50% 860-869 (1729) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $49.92 | $61.02 | +$13.87 | 52% 1617-1483 (3100) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $50.5 | $50 | -$0.06 | 55% 264-213 (477) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19.8¢ | $3.95 | $4.4 | +$0.45 | 63% 2580-1546 (4126) |
Invested
$480.08
Value
$380.84
PnL
-$20.58
Record
36%
12837-22501 (35338)
ImbaferCTRInvested
$207
Value
$198
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
237-188 (425)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$187.56
Value
$169.18
PnL
-$10.69
Record
50%
860-869 (1729)
Invested
$49.92
Value
$61.02
PnL
+$13.87
Record
52%
1617-1483 (3100)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$50.5
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.06
Record
55%
264-213 (477)
Invested
$3.95
Value
$4.4
PnL
+$0.45
Record
63%
2580-1546 (4126)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.