Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.4K
-$1.83
55.8¢ → 51¢
-9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-25 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
471h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 49.5¢ | $786.51 | $605.25 | +$5.38 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 49.5¢ | $396.79 | $392.43 | -$3.51 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 49.2¢ | $205.4 | $212.83 | +$8.88 | |
CO cocococococo | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $557.31 | $496.58 | -$60.72 | 52% 1621-1485 (3106) |
 clazzy1CTR | Noavg 43¢ | $180.02 | $233.53 | +$53.52 | 62% 340-206 (546) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 47.8¢ | $47.8 | $49 | +$1.2 | 17% 3139-14855 (17994) |
 BigRabbit<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $37.53 | $41.7 | +$4.17 | 40% 691-1022 (1713) |
Invested
$786.51
Value
$605.25
PnL
+$5.38
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Both legs:
Invested
$557.31
Value
$496.58
PnL
-$60.72
Record
52%
1621-1485 (3106)
clazzy1CTRInvested
$180.02
Value
$233.53
PnL
+$53.52
Record
62%
340-206 (546)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$47.8
Value
$49
PnL
+$1.2
Record
17%
3139-14855 (17994)
BigRabbit<$100Invested
$37.53
Value
$41.7
PnL
+$4.17
Record
40%
691-1022 (1713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.