Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 PA-12 House election by 30%-35%?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $814 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$814.45
$51.95
72.8¢ → 78.3¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 69.3¢ | $586.52 | $628.61 | +$43.9 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 91.9¢ | $91.9 | $69.1 | -$22.8 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
 fkpaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $32 | $61.8 | +$29.8 | — |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27¢ | $37.48 | $38.54 | +$1.06 | 18% 3414-15601 (19015) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 72¢ | $16.41 | $16.4 | -$0.01 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
Invested
$586.52
Value
$628.61
PnL
+$43.9
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
balthazar<$100Invested
$91.9
Value
$69.1
PnL
-$22.8
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
fkpaCTR<$100Invested
$32
Value
$61.8
PnL
+$29.8
Record
—
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$37.48
Value
$38.54
PnL
+$1.06
Record
18%
3414-15601 (19015)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$16.41
Value
$16.4
PnL
-$0.01
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.