Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-13 House election by 20%-25%?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 68¢ · $354 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$354.11
-$4.35
73.7¢ → 68¢
-8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSV | Noavg 76.2¢ | $162.91 | $169.6 | -$2.86 | 36% 12837-22501 (35338) |
SH shiifoo<$100 | Noavg 69.1¢ | $96.01 | $94.52 | -$1.49 | 63% 2580-1546 (4126) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 84.7¢ | $393.4 | $89.99 | -$90.81 | 55% 264-213 (477) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 84.7¢ | $76.21 | $61.19 | -$99.01 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $20.6 | $28.8 | +$8.2 |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.