Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-07 House election by 50%-55%?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 15¢ · $144 held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$144.03
$152.93
Research grade
AvoidYes at 15%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $17.01 | $105 | +$87.98 | 60% 2895-1934 (4829) |
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754CTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.5¢ | $43.03 | $39.03 | +$64.95 | — 0-1 (1) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
15.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.