Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 30¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$2.3K
$118.06
25.2¢ → 30.2¢
+20% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 30%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 cookiejarCTR | Yesavg 25.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.3K | +$223.85 | 69% 176-78 (254) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 68.5¢ | $814.43 | $831.11 | +$16.68 | 61% 2675-1696 (4371) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 81¢ | $453.54 | $153.27 | -$129.85 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.2¢ | $14.22 | $21.05 | +$7.39 | 52% 1622-1489 (3111) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $11.2 | $11.18 | -$0.02 | 56% 3416-2671 (6087) |
cookiejarCTRInvested
$1,055.8
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$223.85
Record
69%
176-78 (254)
Invested
$814.43
Value
$831.11
PnL
+$16.68
Record
61%
2675-1696 (4371)
Invested
$453.54
Value
$153.27
PnL
-$129.85
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
Invested
$14.22
Value
$21.05
PnL
+$7.39
Record
52%
1622-1489 (3111)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$11.18
PnL
-$0.02
Record
56%
3416-2671 (6087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
30.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.