Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (51%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$9.72
57¢ → 49.5¢
-13% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Yesavg 53.6¢ | $1.0K | $901.58 | +$54.91 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 41.4¢ | $374.46 | $466.22 | +$107.95 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.6¢ | $481.56 | $435.36 | -$53.04 | |
 SpecksalamCTR | Yesavg 55¢ | $112.75 | $154.46 | -$14.39 | 52% 35-32 (67) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 52.3¢ | $79.49 | $78.19 | -$1.3 | 74% 2409-865 (3274) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $53.46 | $72.43 | +$18.97 | 55% 1130-908 (2038) |
 GollumGekkoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 61.6¢ | $75.64 | $67.56 | -$13 | 69% 2048-909 (2957) |
Invested
$1,034.18
Value
$901.58
PnL
+$54.91
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Both legs:
SpecksalamCTRInvested
$112.75
Value
$154.46
PnL
-$14.39
Record
52%
35-32 (67)
vinii<$100Invested
$79.49
Value
$78.19
PnL
-$1.3
Record
74%
2409-865 (3274)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$53.46
Value
$72.43
PnL
+$18.97
Record
55%
1130-908 (2038)
GollumGekkoCTR<$100Invested
$75.64
Value
$67.56
PnL
-$13
Record
69%
2048-909 (2957)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.