Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 46¢ · $555 held · ends Oct 30

Yes46¢No54¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$554.86

Combined PnL

$25.88

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 45.5¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes46%

No55%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$395.23

Total Shares733

Combined PnL+$29.8

No3 traders

Total Value$159.63

Total Shares339

Combined PnL-$3.92

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 42.1¢	$159.01	$207.66	+$48.65	33% 3292-6726 (10018)
crypto-basenji	Noavg 42¢	$106.64	$127.97	+$21.33	40% 156-237 (393)
FI firegoldCTR	Yesavg 55¢	$110	$102	-$15	59% 296-203 (499)
IstarothCTR	Yesavg 55.1¢	$112.39	$85.57	-$3.85	43% 269-351 (620)
LI lissartter<$100	Noavg 46¢	$55.2	$29.37	+$7.09	42% 5102-7000 (12102)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 51.7¢	$268.71	$2.3	-$32.34	54% 4876-4189 (9065)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$159.01

Value

$207.66

PnL

+$48.65

Record

33%

3292-6726 (10018)

crypto-basenji

Invested

$106.64

Value

$127.97

PnL

+$21.33

Record

40%

156-237 (393)

firegoldCTR

Yes

Invested

$110

Value

$102

PnL

-$15

Record

59%

296-203 (499)

IstarothCTR

Yes

Invested

$112.39

Value

$85.57

PnL

-$3.85

Record

43%

269-351 (620)

lissartter<$100

Invested

$55.2

Value

$29.37

PnL

+$7.09

Record

42%

5102-7000 (12102)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$268.71

Value

$2.3

PnL

-$32.34

Record

54%

4876-4189 (9065)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 46%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.5%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$110.55

Max Loss

-$100.00

210.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.