Will the Bank of Russia announce a 50+ bps decrease at the December 2026 meeting?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $198 held · ends Dec 18

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Dec 18, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$198

Combined PnL

-$98.83

Smart Money Entry

97.2¢ → 97.2¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$194.51

Total Shares199

Combined PnL-$86.47

Yes1 trader

Total Value$3.64

Total Shares80

Combined PnL-$12.36

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 97.3¢	$110.24	$108.11	-$2.13	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$40.12	$39.5	-$0.62	33% 3273-6508 (9781)
AJ AJSV	Noavg 93¢	$204.5	$19.09	-$85.41	36% 13723-24173 (37896)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 99¢	$19.63	$18.93	-$0.7	45% 354-437 (791)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 85¢	$6.49	$8.89	+$2.39	18% 3414-15601 (19015)
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$16	$3.64	-$12.36	52% 1017-927 (1944)

balthazar

Invested

$110.24

Value

$108.11

PnL

-$2.13

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100

Invested

$40.12

Value

$39.5

PnL

-$0.62

Record

33%

3273-6508 (9781)

AJSV

Invested

$204.5

Value

$19.09

PnL

-$85.41

Record

36%

13723-24173 (37896)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$19.63

Value

$18.93

PnL

-$0.7

Record

45%

354-437 (791)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$6.49

Value

$8.89

PnL

+$2.39

Record

18%

3414-15601 (19015)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16

Value

$3.64

PnL

-$12.36

Record

52%

1017-927 (1944)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.2%

97.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.