Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the December interest rate announcement?
11 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 98¢ · $395 held · ends Dec 9
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 92%
$395
-$1.77
97.7¢ → 98.5¢
+1% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 12 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011 | Noavg 99.1¢ | $155.56 | $154.41 | -$1.15 | 48% 3101-3334 (6435) |
 balthazar<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $50.17 | $49.7 | -$0.47 | 63% 16296-9616 (25912) |
AK akroll<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $31.2 | $30.87 | -$0.33 | 35% 269-495 (764) |
KL klli27<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $25.78 | $25.51 | -$0.27 | 34% 243-478 (721) |
KA kaxel78<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $21.26 | $21.04 | -$0.22 | 35% 218-411 (629) |
ZE zerone777<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $21.26 | $21.04 | -$0.22 | 45% 354-437 (791) |
LI Likaseent<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $20.81 | $20.59 | -$0.22 | 33% 157-325 (482) |
VA Vale54holi<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $20.81 | $20.59 | -$0.22 | 31% 133-292 (425) |
PO pollo07<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $19.96 | $19.75 | -$0.21 | 34% 273-519 (792) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 64.8¢ | $16.65 | $18.23 | +$1.58 | 36% 13723-24173 (37896) |
KO korda77<$100 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $10.19 | $10.1 | -$0.09 | 54% 3109-2702 (5811) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $2.71 | $2.77 | +$0.06 | 33% 3273-6508 (9781) |
Invested
$155.56
Value
$154.41
PnL
-$1.15
Record
48%
3101-3334 (6435)
balthazar<$100Invested
$50.17
Value
$49.7
PnL
-$0.47
Record
63%
16296-9616 (25912)
Invested
$31.2
Value
$30.87
PnL
-$0.33
Record
35%
269-495 (764)
Invested
$25.78
Value
$25.51
PnL
-$0.27
Record
34%
243-478 (721)
Invested
$21.26
Value
$21.04
PnL
-$0.22
Record
35%
218-411 (629)
Invested
$21.26
Value
$21.04
PnL
-$0.22
Record
45%
354-437 (791)
Invested
$20.81
Value
$20.59
PnL
-$0.22
Record
33%
157-325 (482)
Invested
$20.81
Value
$20.59
PnL
-$0.22
Record
31%
133-292 (425)
Invested
$19.96
Value
$19.75
PnL
-$0.21
Record
34%
273-519 (792)
Invested
$16.65
Value
$18.23
PnL
+$1.58
Record
36%
13723-24173 (37896)
Invested
$10.19
Value
$10.1
PnL
-$0.09
Record
54%
3109-2702 (5811)
Invested
$2.71
Value
$2.77
PnL
+$0.06
Record
33%
3273-6508 (9781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.