Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the December meeting?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $809 held · ends Dec 9

Yes40¢No60¢Ends Wed, Dec 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$808.53

Combined PnL

$277.28

Smart Money Entry

31¢ → 40¢

+29% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$780.6

Total Shares2,138

Combined PnL+$285.7

No2 traders

Total Value$27.93

Total Shares47

Combined PnL-$8.42

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 29.5¢	$390.81	$670.3	+$279.49	52% 1004-922 (1926)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR	Yesavg 41.3¢	$173.55	$110.3	+$6.21	54% 4740-4091 (8831)
JO Johnsansculotte<$100	Noavg 82¢	$24.55	$15.93	-$8.62	34% 28-54 (82)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 59¢	$11.8	$12	+$0.2	49% 269-276 (545)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$390.81

Value

$670.3

PnL

+$279.49

Record

52%

1004-922 (1926)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR

Yes

Invested

$173.55

Value

$110.3

PnL

+$6.21

Record

54%

4740-4091 (8831)

Johnsansculotte<$100

Invested

$24.55

Value

$15.93

PnL

-$8.62

Record

34%

28-54 (82)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$11.8

Value

$12

PnL

+$0.2

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 40%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance42.2%

40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$136.91

Max Loss

-$100.00

236.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.