Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 4

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

14.7¢ → 79¢

+437% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,506

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Yes2 traders

Total Value$240.19

Total Shares489

Combined PnL-$72.29

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO Johnsansculotte	Noavg 14.4¢	$235.94	$1.5K	+$1.1K	34% 28-54 (82)
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 64.2¢	$309.17	$236.02	-$73.15	36% 13289-23211 (36500)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438ARB<$100	Yesavg 75.2¢	$320.83	$132.34	-$58.94	49% 149-156 (305)
└ No leg	Noavg 22.8¢	$21.14	$68.73	+$46.73
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 75.2¢	$183.96	$63.61	-$105.67
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Noavg 55.8¢	$105.32	$11.37	-$3.55	56% 3466-2703 (6169)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$3.31	$4.17	+$0.86	49% 66-68 (134)

Johnsansculotte

Invested

$235.94

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

34%

28-54 (82)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$309.17

Value

$236.02

PnL

-$73.15

Record

36%

13289-23211 (36500)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$320.83

Value

$132.34

PnL

-$58.94

Record

49%

149-156 (305)

Both legs:

No$21.1422.8¢+$46.73

Yes$183.9675.2¢-$105.67

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Invested

$105.32

Value

$11.37

PnL

-$3.55

Record

56%

3466-2703 (6169)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.31

Value

$4.17

PnL

+$0.86

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 79%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.8%

79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.