Will the Atlanta Falcons make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 67¢ · $209 held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$209.14
$0.88
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AJ AJSVARB<$100 | Noavg 68.6¢ | $245 | $184.61 | -$16.01 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.6¢ | $112.69 | $110.07 | -$10.88 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 37.7¢ | $85.13 | $74.54 | -$5.12 | |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $20.2 | $20 | -$0.2 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
 JustADonk<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $3.45 | $4.53 | +$1.08 | 55% 830-688 (1518) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.