Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.25% before 2027?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 81¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31

Yes20¢No80¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

-$8.48

Smart Money Entry

62.9¢ → 80.5¢

+28% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes20%

No81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$975.06

Total Shares1,354

Combined PnL+$363.35

Yes2 traders

Total Value$284.73

Total Shares1,369

Combined PnL-$371.84

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AJ AJSVARB<$100	Noavg 58.6¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	+$1.3	36% 12767-22362 (35129)
└ No leg	Noavg 58.6¢	$614.44	$754.44	+$119.07
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.6¢	$514.17	$356.42	-$117.77
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 63¢	$3.7K	$958.78	+$357.07	57% 14640-10985 (25625)
BigMackyGCTR	Yesavg 47.8¢	$628.51	$269.43	-$359.08	22% 89-315 (404)
XAE12Archangel<$100	Noavg 56¢	$10	$16.29	+$6.29	65% 760-401 (1161)
LI lissartterCTR<$100	Yesavg 37.7¢	$35.66	$15.3	-$12.76	44% 4851-6181 (11032)

AJSVARB<$100

Invested

$1,387.73

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$1.3

Record

36%

12767-22362 (35129)

Both legs:

No$614.4458.6¢+$119.07

Yes$514.1734.6¢-$117.77

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$3,745.87

Value

$958.78

PnL

+$357.07

Record

57%

14640-10985 (25625)

BigMackyGCTR

Yes

Invested

$628.51

Value

$269.43

PnL

-$359.08

Record

22%

89-315 (404)

XAE12Archangel<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$16.29

PnL

+$6.29

Record

65%

760-401 (1161)

lissartterCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$35.66

Value

$15.3

PnL

-$12.76

Record

44%

4851-6181 (11032)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 81%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.1%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.