Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 78¢ · $5K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$4.5K
-$210.2
88.9¢ → 78¢
-12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 90.1¢ | $2.8K | $2.2K | -$361.99 | 57% 15188-11619 (26807) |
SB sbimbg | Noavg 87¢ | $1.7K | $1.5K | -$166.77 | 70% 3128-1347 (4475) |
ST StonktraderCTR | Yesavg 12.8¢ | $445.62 | $764.19 | +$318.56 | 74% 157-54 (211) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.