Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 6.00% before 2027?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $6K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$6.0K
$535.55
84.8¢ → 95.3¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 85.9¢ | $303.44 | $3.3K | +$266.26 | 66% 764-401 (1165) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 83.1¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$215.09 | 57% 14838-11202 (26040) |
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 85¢ | $565.25 | $619.45 | +$54.2 | 89% 4214-531 (4745) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.