Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.00% before 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 80¢ · $770 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$769.53
-$139.11
83.3¢ → 79.5¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 70%
Freshness
Late
177h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 85.3¢ | $358 | $316 | -$42 | 57% 14640-10985 (25625) |
AJ AJSV | Noavg 80.7¢ | $398.18 | $216.53 | -$72.05 | 36% 12767-22362 (35129) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 86¢ | $172 | $158 | -$20 | 73% 2877-1050 (3927) |
HE HerrieDavis<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $67.92 | $70.6 | +$0 | 47% 1705-1906 (3611) |
SB sbimbgCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.8¢ | $46.41 | $8.4 | -$5.07 | 64% 2120-1203 (3323) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$358
Value
$316
PnL
-$42
Record
57%
14640-10985 (25625)
Invested
$398.18
Value
$216.53
PnL
-$72.05
Record
36%
12767-22362 (35129)
Tenebrus7Invested
$172
Value
$158
PnL
-$20
Record
73%
2877-1050 (3927)
Invested
$67.92
Value
$70.6
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1705-1906 (3611)
Invested
$46.41
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$5.07
Record
64%
2120-1203 (3323)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.