Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 79¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$4.4K
$1.2K
72.7¢ → 78.5¢
+8% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
497h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 74.9¢ | $3.7K | $3.6K | +$153.84 | 64% 283-160 (443) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 48.5¢ | $1.2K | $456.96 | -$638.29 | 36% 13086-22900 (35986) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 48.2¢ | $4.4K | $324.04 | +$1.8K | 57% 14725-11079 (25804) |
 funnydayCTR | Yesavg 53.5¢ | $107 | $40 | -$63 | 50% 3879-3854 (7733) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 73¢ | $29.2 | $8 | -$20.4 | 51% 1524-1493 (3017) |
Invested
$3,746.16
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$153.84
Record
64%
283-160 (443)
Invested
$1,195.71
Value
$456.96
PnL
-$638.29
Record
36%
13086-22900 (35986)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$4,359.01
Value
$324.04
PnL
+$1.8K
Record
57%
14725-11079 (25804)
funnydayCTRInvested
$107
Value
$40
PnL
-$63
Record
50%
3879-3854 (7733)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$29.2
Value
$8
PnL
-$20.4
Record
51%
1524-1493 (3017)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.