Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2026?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$9.0K
$240.18
95.2¢ → 97.7¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH thoodr | Noavg 95¢ | $5.7K | $5.9K | +$165 | 96% 548-23 (571) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616 | No | $2.7K | $2.7K | +$75.18 | 21% 306-1159 (1465) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $488.5 | $488.5 | +$0 | 73% 2885-1051 (3936) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.