Will Tencent be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 87¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.9K
$270.41
76.7¢ → 86.5¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FrozenParasite | Noavg 75¢ | $252.5 | $1.5K | +$189.94 | 53% 356-310 (666) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 85.7¢ | $771.55 | $770.05 | -$1.5 | 57% 14829-11196 (26025) |
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 68¢ | $395.11 | $496.79 | +$107.49 | 50% 1781-1809 (3590) |
HE HerrieDavisCTR | Yesavg 17.9¢ | $106.28 | $81.36 | -$24.92 | 37% 1928-3336 (5264) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.5¢ | $18 | $17.4 | -$0.6 | 58% 2971-2134 (5105) |
FrozenParasiteInvested
$252.5
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$189.94
Record
53%
356-310 (666)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$771.55
Value
$770.05
PnL
-$1.5
Record
57%
14829-11196 (26025)
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$395.11
Value
$496.79
PnL
+$107.49
Record
50%
1781-1809 (3590)
Invested
$106.28
Value
$81.36
PnL
-$24.92
Record
37%
1928-3336 (5264)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$18
Value
$17.4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
58%
2971-2134 (5105)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.