Will Taylor Swift's daily YouTube view count hit 25M in October?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31

Yes2¢No98¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$199.5

Smart Money Entry

93.6¢ → 98.4¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares4,118

Combined PnL+$202.5

Yes1 trader

Total Value$16

Total Shares1,000

Combined PnL-$3

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e	Noavg 96.2¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$79.89	83% 216-45 (261)
SH shovelingdigging	Noavg 82.1¢	$602.89	$724.62	+$121.73	59% 276-194 (470)
KimchiCapital	Noavg 95¢	$171.86	$172.74	+$0.88	75% 445-152 (597)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$19	$16	-$3	57% 15027-11433 (26460)

0x6fa70d26939b2075fcafd2db38099b42cf47907e

Invested

$3,086.26

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$79.89

Record

83%

216-45 (261)

shovelingdigging

Invested

$602.89

Value

$724.62

PnL

+$121.73

Record

59%

276-194 (470)

KimchiCapital

Invested

$171.86

Value

$172.74

PnL

+$0.88

Record

75%

445-152 (597)

ArmageddonRewardsBillyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19

Value

$16

PnL

-$3

Record

57%

15027-11433 (26460)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.4%

98.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.