Will Syria join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 93¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$4.9K
$276.23
87.6¢ → 92.9¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 88.1¢ | $4.1K | $4.3K | +$232.22 | 77% 1384-406 (1790) |
 archaic | Noavg 85.1¢ | $353.68 | $374.76 | +$21.08 | 85% 1862-338 (2200) |
KR Krass | Noavg 82.3¢ | $125.61 | $188.29 | +$22.2 | 75% 450-154 (604) |
BA balerinacapuchina<$100 | Noavg 81.1¢ | $5 | $5.72 | +$0.73 | 73% 176-66 (242) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.