Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 74¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$3.7K
-$799.4
73¢ → 73.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 74%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPrediction | Yesavg 73¢ | $2.9K | $2.9K | -$20 | 54% 4497-3882 (8379) |
 JustADonkCTR | Noavg 58¢ | $1.5K | $676.27 | -$778.35 | 55% 872-719 (1591) |
TO Tobias1909<$100 | Yesavg 73.6¢ | $68.29 | $68.16 | -$1.06 | 57% 382-292 (674) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.