Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in November?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 3.0¢ · $194 held · ends Feb 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$194.09
-$395.75
4.1¢ → 3¢
-26% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RememberAmalekCTR | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $94.76 | $184.83 | -$357.67 | 56% 954-753 (1707) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $2 | $6.01 | -$37.74 | 55% 302-251 (553) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $1.6 | $1.65 | +$0.05 | 48% 2024-2230 (4254) |
 CunglyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.9¢ | $1.99 | $1.61 | -$0.39 | 63% 663-389 (1052) |
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$94.76
Value
$184.83
PnL
-$357.67
Record
56%
954-753 (1707)
Invested
$2
Value
$6.01
PnL
-$37.74
Record
55%
302-251 (553)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
$1.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
2024-2230 (4254)
CunglyCTR<$100Invested
$1.99
Value
$1.61
PnL
-$0.39
Record
63%
663-389 (1052)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
3.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.