Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (72%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Steve Martin win the next Devonport mayoral election?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 28¢ · $662 held · ends Oct 28

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$662.1

Combined PnL

$254.22

Smart Money Entry

17.2¢ → 28¢

+63% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$535.51

Total Shares1,552

Combined PnL+$267.53

No3 traders

Total Value$126.6

Total Shares166

Combined PnL-$13.31

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR	Yesavg 17.2¢	$265.95	$533.05	+$267.1	52% 1004-922 (1926)
paddaa<$100	Noavg 74¢	$56.14	$67.43	+$11.29	57% 797-607 (1404)
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73	Noavg 81.5¢	$177.12	$52.57	-$22.93	50% 107-107 (214)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 82¢	$8.27	$6.6	-$1.66	47% 67-77 (144)
NadmiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$0.5	$2.45	+$0.43	48% 2006-2189 (4195)

SnapElectionAvoiderCTR

Yes

Invested

$265.95

Value

$533.05

PnL

+$267.1

Record

52%

1004-922 (1926)

paddaa<$100

Invested

$56.14

Value

$67.43

PnL

+$11.29

Record

57%

797-607 (1404)

0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73

Invested

$177.12

Value

$52.57

PnL

-$22.93

Record

50%

107-107 (214)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$8.27

Value

$6.6

PnL

-$1.66

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

NadmiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.43

Record

48%

2006-2189 (4195)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 72%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.8%

28.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$235.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

335.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.