Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$380.2

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 94¢

-3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$926.77

Total Shares998

Combined PnL-$39.33

Yes3 traders

Total Value$576.05

Total Shares8,162

Combined PnL+$419.53

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
balthazar	Noavg 98.3¢	$652.38	$616.49	-$35.89	62% 18410-11080 (29490)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 2.6¢	$177.66	$409.17	+$333.09	41% 1915-2708 (4623)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 93.9¢	$313.73	$310.29	-$3.44	47% 2519-2874 (5393)
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Yesavg 3.2¢	$73.97	$159.37	+$85.4	55% 1880-1555 (3435)
AJ AJSVCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.1¢	$6.47	$7.51	+$1.04	36% 13969-24716 (38685)

balthazar

Invested

$652.38

Value

$616.49

PnL

-$35.89

Record

62%

18410-11080 (29490)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$177.66

Value

$409.17

PnL

+$333.09

Record

41%

1915-2708 (4623)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$313.73

Value

$310.29

PnL

-$3.44

Record

47%

2519-2874 (5393)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Yes

Invested

$73.97

Value

$159.37

PnL

+$85.4

Record

55%

1880-1555 (3435)

AJSVCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.47

Value

$7.51

PnL

+$1.04

Record

36%

13969-24716 (38685)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 94%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.05

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.