Will Solana reach $170 in October?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$5.6K
$158.56
96.9¢ → 99.8¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Quality net +3 or moreNet +3 when the consensus formed: +7.2 % a trade pooled (n 214 + 144, 95 % CI +0.9 to +13.6), +5.7 % at a 2¢ half-spread. Fragile: the 5 best events give 66–75 % of the profit.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $4.4K | $4.3K | +$147.99 | 65% 2304-1251 (3555) |
0X 0x834D057bAf532280B0129C302AC4fd2AA2444eB9-1765991009868 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $1.0K | $997.5 | +$8.53 | 72% 225-86 (311) |
OE oegdatam | Noavg 98.9¢ | $238.77 | $238.17 | +$2.03 | 86% 138-22 (160) |
X6 x6916Cc00AA1c3e75ECf4081DF7caE7D2f3592fd4<$100 | Noavg 99¢ | $1.01 | $1.01 | +$0.01 | 54% 739-627 (1366) |
Invested
$4,354.36
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$147.99
Record
65%
2304-1251 (3555)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$997.5
PnL
+$8.53
Record
72%
225-86 (311)
Invested
$238.77
Value
$238.17
PnL
+$2.03
Record
86%
138-22 (160)
Invested
$1.01
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.01
Record
54%
739-627 (1366)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.