Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 5.3¢ · $112 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$112.29
$2.02
4.7¢ → 5.3¢
+14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
368h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AK akoollCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.5¢ | $66.67 | $60.66 | -$6.01 | — 3-0 (3) |
DR drugi.mlazCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $23.22 | $35 | +$11.78 | — 2-10 (12) |
MA Maki777CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $13.8 | $15 | +$1.2 | 36% 8-14 (22) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $0.69 | $1.5 | +$0.81 | 74% 2566-917 (3483) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.13 | $0.13 | -$5.76 | 53% 255-225 (480) |
Invested
$66.67
Value
$60.66
PnL
-$6.01
Record
—
3-0 (3)
Invested
$23.22
Value
$35
PnL
+$11.78
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.2
Record
36%
8-14 (22)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$0.69
Value
$1.5
PnL
+$0.81
Record
74%
2566-917 (3483)
Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$5.76
Record
53%
255-225 (480)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.