Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (98%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 1.7¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 25

Yes98¢No2¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 57%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$145.56

Smart Money Entry

75.9¢ → 1.7¢

-98% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,622

Combined PnL+$930.11

No4 traders

Total Value$171.11

Total Shares1,249

Combined PnL-$784.55

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DR drugi.mlaz	Yesavg 22¢	$66.92	$1.5K	+$664.34	—
AJ AJSV	Yesavg 18.8¢	$59.53	$320.69	+$261.17	36% 13604-23855 (37459)
vinii<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$28.8	$84.35	+$4.6	74% 2525-901 (3426)
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR	Noavg 81.7¢	$279.83	$74.43	-$160.65	53% 243-213 (456)
BI BiggggggggCTR	Noavg 73.6¢	$199.54	$72.22	-$127.32	47% 2449-2762 (5211)
balthazarCTR	Noavg 76¢	$519.49	$23.94	-$495.55	63% 16296-9616 (25912)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 10.3¢	$1.55	$0.53	-$1.03	47% 68-78 (146)

drugi.mlaz

Yes

Invested

$66.92

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$664.34

Record

—

AJSV

Yes

Invested

$59.53

Value

$320.69

PnL

+$261.17

Record

36%

13604-23855 (37459)

vinii<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.8

Value

$84.35

PnL

+$4.6

Record

74%

2525-901 (3426)

0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR

Invested

$279.83

Value

$74.43

PnL

-$160.65

Record

53%

243-213 (456)

BiggggggggCTR

Invested

$199.54

Value

$72.22

PnL

-$127.32

Record

47%

2449-2762 (5211)

balthazarCTR

Invested

$519.49

Value

$23.94

PnL

-$495.55

Record

63%

16296-9616 (25912)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$1.55

Value

$0.53

PnL

-$1.03

Record

47%

68-78 (146)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 98%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.8%

1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3532.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

3632.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.