Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $5K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$4.7K
$134.74
91.8¢ → 94.7¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OL ololololololololo | Noavg 91.3¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$75.98 | 35% 41-77 (118) |
 Porx | Noavg 91.8¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$64.46 | 66% 1454-754 (2208) |
 tetrase | Noavg 95.8¢ | $254.67 | $241.17 | -$2.91 | 60% 793-534 (1327) |
AO aosdijfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $13.4 | $11.5 | -$2.8 | 9% 45-432 (477) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.